Monthly Archives: February 2013

EM Struggles With 200Yr Economic Relationship

The First EM bonds were issued nearly 200 years ago. Since then, they have been victims of an ever repeating cycle. They benefit when rates in developed countries are low, and sell off when the economic cycle drives rates up in the developed world.
Given the growth spread between developed and EM nations, driven by a new level of economic prudence in the latter, we might have hoped for something different this time.
But, as the attached chart (of Russian corporate bond spreads) shows, the initial signs are not optimistic.

EM Struggles With 200Yr Economic Relationship

The First EM bonds were issued nearly 200 years ago. Since then, they have been victims of an ever repeating cycle. They benefit when rates in developed countries are low, and sell off when the economic cycle drives rates up in the developed world.
Given the growth spread between developed and EM nations, driven by a new level of economic prudence in the latter, we might have hoped for something different this time.
But, as the attached chart (of Russian corporate bond spreads) shows, the initial signs are not optimistic.