Monthly Archives: September 2013

Taper Tragedy – Has Ben Lost Control?

EURUSDI’ve been bullish for a long-time now, and pretty much without a break since the Draghi “whatever it takes” speech. Markets have done very well since then, although it hasn’t been easy by any stretch. Now I’m getting more cautious, specifically on the FOMC decision that sent markets charging higher and got media pundits so excited, here’s why.

I know the data has been disappointing over the summer. But even so I really expected a taper. My call was for $10 bln, because: Continue reading

Tips for Students of Finance Part 3

how to succeedWe’ve seen how scary finance is, how the industry is changing and you can no longer expect a short cut to riches. You’re still here, so lets start looking at what makes finance special. Enjoy part 3 of my speech to the new MS Finance students at the International University of Finance.

 

 

Syrian News, Market Impact

cropped-photo-71.jpgThe markets are all at sea over the Russian proposal to peacefully resolve the Syrian stand-off by bringing that country’s WMD under international control. What to make of it and how to trade it?

Initially the Syrian stand-off caused me to move more conservative equities, as I calculated that the market didn’t grasp the full extent of a possible strike, which would surely need to materially damage Assad’s forces in order to be sufficiently punitive. At the end of last week, though, the market seemed to have had time to digest the risks and it still looked perky.

Continue reading

Tips for Students of Finance Part 2

how to succeedWork your way through the pains of the financial crisis in Part 2, if you can survive the worst economic event in recent history, then we’ll go on to talk about more inspiring things in the parts that follow. Again, you will need headphones to hear this.

 

 

Tips for Students of Finance Part 1

how to succeedThe new academic year is starting, and last Thursday I spoke to the new Master of Finance students at the International University of Monaco. The title of my speech was How to Succeed in Finance, and I will be posting segments of it over the coming week.

My apologies for the low sound level, I have done what I can to improve it. However, with full volume or headphones you can hear it. If you are new to the finance sector, I hope you will find these videos of use.

(And yes, the speech gets more motivating as it goes on. Tune in for the next segments to get more valuable insights.)

Misreading Russia & Market Opportunity

cnbc 06072009 Yesterday was one of those great days to be a globally minded Russia expert.

We live in an market era dominated by political headlines. Any responsible money manager would want to watch the post G20 press conference by the host country. But this time the press conference was in Russian. And the major networks didn’t stream it with simultaneous translation.

A perfect recipe for a classic dose of Russia misinterpretation.
So, as I sat there listening to Mr Putin cough and sneeze his way through the a stream of questions (in a rarely constructive tone, I might add) I was surprised to see the markets start plunging.
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The trigger was clear, a Bloomberg headline that Putin said Russia would help Syria in case of an attack.

But wait! He did say that, yes. He was very clear about it – Russia would continue to ship arms and provide economic and humanitarian aid. He didn’t say that Russia would get into a military conflict with the US. (A point that Russia had explicitly clarified earlier anyway.)

But, package what he said in a one-line headline and wham, there goes the market. It’s rare to find such an easy opportunity in the markets. Yesterday was a great day to have a globally minded Russia expert as your investment advisor. Use the contact page to learn more about what I can do to improve your performance and/or help you grow your business.