Monthly Archives: October 2013

Financial Market Health-Check

photo (7)Buying the US market during the fiscal crisis was easy. But since then I have been more cautious. Here is a summary of what I see:

– It looks like equities will go higher because investor sentiment is good, so there is strong momentum.
– But, the fundamental situation is less clear now.
– US equities are not so cheap now as they were before the summer.
– The US fiscal crisis caused negative impacts on the US economy, which the market has not considered.
– The fiscal crisis is also not finished, so economic growth will continue to suffer until January.
– There will be a new leader at the US central bank in January, this is often a cause for volatility.
– It is no longer clear that QE is helping the economy. Continue reading

The Russian Investor Versus the Nobel Laureates

photo (7)In my latest column in The Moscow Times, I take issue with the Nobel Prize committee’s insistence on rewarding pre-crisis solutions, proven to have an unhealthy impact on your portfolio retirement. Where are the post-crisis thinkers? The banking model is broken, this we know. The theories of finance are in need for an injection of fresh thinking too.

 

Read my column here: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/hope-is-not-an-investment-strategy/488193.html