Monthly Archives: December 2014

Capital Controls are Good for Russia

James BeadleThis morning, it is reported that Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev has signed an order for exporting corporations to repatriate part of their earnings. Russia had already seen ultra-light capital controls in the form of verbal persuasion, now it has gone a step further. Many of the country’s top banks have been warning that capital controls would be a disaster. I have been arguing the opposite. So, why is this good news? Continue reading

Why You Should Be Buying Rubles

James BeadleIt has been a tumultuous ride for the ruble, which has fallen by forty percent against the dollar this year, and at one stage was down by nearly seventy percent. The population, unsurprisingly, is rushing to protect itself. The government has at times looked lost and confused, like a deer in the headlights as unimaginable price moves roll the market. What’s going on? Why has the ruble done the impossible, and what might we expect from it in 2015? Continue reading

Global Flows, Oil Falls, Prices Distort

James BeadleThere has been a useful dislocation in markets this week, caused by oil predominantly. At the beginning of the week I was scared equities would run away on what is, let’s face it, the biggest tax cut the global economy could ever ask for. I was afraid to get in late. Luckily I still have time, because markets have been engrossed in fears of the negative impacts on the energy sector, inflation and perhaps oil exporting nations. Continue reading

Buy Russia this Week

900px-Flag_of_Russia.svgWhen oil fell, this afternoon, through its recent low announcing a new leg down, the Russian equity market became a buy. It sounds odd, because Russia is highly dependent on oil, and usually moves in synch with it, oil falls, Russia falls. But here is why: Continue reading