Monthly Archives: October 2015

Quantitative Expectations, ECB & BoJ

The commentary I read strongly expects Draghi to lead expectations on increased QE today. Core inflation is reasonably stable, and economic dynamics are still improving. I remember when ECB QE started, and there was a huge debate about whether or not they would find enough bonds to buy. I can’t get my head around this expectation for more QE. I can’t believe the Bundesbank is going to sanction it.

Then again I didn’t expect Draghi to even hint at it before, and he seemed to. If he does then he’s surely expecting the euro needs help against a Fed that won’t  hike. But the Euro’s been resilient, and I wonder what it has priced-in. Usually I have an idea, but since the Fed blundered last month, it’s hard to know.

The same debate also exists about Japan, where the expectation is for QE to ratchet up again this month, even whilst the BoJ is actively talking up its positive impact on the economy…

What Keeps me Awake at Night?

Me in France 3I was recently asked what keeps me awake at night, from an investment standpoint. The question is pertinent, because there are so many major issues evolving at the current time. It doesn’t surprise me that corporate investment is low, and macro numbers struggle to find top gear, because there are so many causes of concern. (And thus, I would suggest, the solution is not so-called People’s QE, which has failed spectacularly in every instance, but a concerted global effort to resolve these overhanging concerns.) The below list is not in any particular order. Continue reading

Brexit: Oh God the Media BS Bus is Back on the Road

It never ends does it? One spurious speel of nonsense after another. On a global scale. In the case of the UK’s referendum on EU membership, you’d think the media could grow a brain, but no!

Let’s look at some simple facts:

– All the major UK parties are in favour of EU membership.

– A tiny minority of UK citizens voted for parties in favaour of leaving.

– The EU itself recognises the need for reform, and has said at all levels that it wants the UK to remain.

And still, the polls are managing to make it sound like a close fight. Sound familiar? Like the Scottish referendum, like the general election. Wake up and smell the coffee, the media rig the polls to make a story to sell anxiety and tension in the name of information!

The UK will not leave the EU. The Greek crisis of the summer has not swayed the UK’s view of the EU. Anyone who says it has is barking up a fake tree.

Of course, the negotiations will be complicated, more than anything the politicians want to keep the idiotic media out of them. Hence the media kicks up a temper tantrum and spreads lies to try to make a one-horse race look like its going to have a photo finish.